# 226, What to expect by 2039?

Also per Stratfor, forecasting world events is a difficult task that takes guts and discipline. Though you can find endless scenarios in a number of places, the same people that predicted, in 2002, the EU crisis; and in 2010, the U.S.-Iranian negotiations – focuses on countries’ constraints, which eliminates the impossibilities down to a likely path.

Here are a few things to be seen ahead by 2039:

• The United States will continue to be the leading economic power.
• Conflict in the Middle East will continue, but the United States will take a much more hands-off approach in the region.
• German and Russian interests will align, trading natural gas and technology, and could potentially threaten Washington's global strategy.
• Mexico will become an industrial powerhouse by taking low-level production from China and monetizing its energy sector.
• China will continue to face more internal tension and slower economic growth.

# 225, Stratfor trends for 2014

225. George Friedman and the smart minds around him have compiled the top 5 trends that will shape 2014.

I feel comfortable casting the highlights without much change:

• An enduring detente between Iran and the United States
• The rise of nationalist and extremist parties in Europe
• Russia and Germany bargain over Central/Eastern Europe and energy policy
• China's return to strongman politics
• Domestic turmoil and economic stress in India and Turkey

The United States will attempt to balance power in the Middle East through its strategic negotiations with Iran; the rise of nationalist and euroskeptic parties will be felt in this upcoming year’s elections; the Chinese president will continue to consolidate more power under himself. Barely missing the list but still notable: the end of the FARC insurgency in Colombia, escalating violence in Nigeria, and Mexico's return to political gridlock.

own quote # 51

Anchoveta y Chia asegurarán la nutrición y preservarán la salud del Mundo.

own quote # 50

Anchoveta & Chia will ensure the nutrition & preserve the health of the World.

# 224, Intelligence vs journalism

224. George Friedman -who founded private intelligence firm Stratfor in 1996- is accurate in stating that intelligence differs from journalism in many ways.

Friedman stresses also that perhaps the most important dissimilarity is that where journalism focuses on what has happened, intelligence also concerns itself with what will happen -and even more important- why it will happen.

own quote # 49

Nuestra cultura actual ha amasado toneladas de conocimiento; pero es bastante menos sabia que muchas antiguas.

own quote # 48

Our current culture has amassed tons of knowledge, but is way less wise than many ancient ones.